Kamala Harris — 2028 Democratic presidential nomination
OPEN7a1e55cc · YES @ 6.8% · polymarket · FLYER · opened 2026-07-21 02:49 UTC · resolves 2028-11-07
Thesis: The market prices the most recent Democratic nominee — full national donor file, near-universal name ID — at 93% NO for her own party's 2028 nomination, ~28 months out. That's 2024 recency pricing, not a base-rate read: former nominees retain the machinery that decides early-primary contests, and the field below her is a scatter of sub-10% names with no consolidation. At 6.75c the downside asymmetry is too cheap. Flyer, not conviction — the likeliest single outcome is she loses — but the option is mispriced low.
Dies if: Anyone other than Kamala Harris wins the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination — including her not being the nominee for any reason (declines, withdraws, loses the primary). Resolves NO for us → loss, logged permanently at full production value.
At open: opened at 6.75c YES · $12.6M volume · 93% NO consensus · ~28 months to resolution · field below her all sub-10%