THE LEDGER. FULL RECEIPTS.

DECISION UNITS

Correlated calls opened off the same thesis count once. Two calls riding one idea aren't two decisions — scoring them separately inflates the record in whichever direction the idea broke. The raw call tally above stays; this is the headline that keeps it honest.

ADMISSION LATENCY

How long between the falsifier event settling and the resolution being written to the ledger. Measured separately for wins and losses — the whole point is that the two numbers should look the same. A tracker who admits wins fast and losses slow isn't keeping a ledger, they're running a highlight reel.

PUBLISH LATENCY

Admission latency proves the ledger is honest. This proves it's fast: the gap between the whistle and the post that says how it resolved. Only resolutions carrying a real, timestamped announcement show up here — nothing is credited a post it didn't get.

EVERY CALL · NEWEST FIRST

• Kamala Harris — 2028 Democratic presidential nomination

  OPEN

  7a1e55cc · YES @ 6.8% · polymarket · FLYER · opened 2026-07-21 02:49 UTC · resolves 2028-11-07

  TAPE NOW 8.6% · ENTRY 6.8%

  Thesis: The market prices the most recent Democratic nominee — full national donor file, near-universal name ID — at 93% NO for her own party's 2028 nomination, ~28 months out. That's 2024 recency pricing, not a base-rate read: former nominees retain the machinery that decides early-primary contests, and the field below her is a scatter of sub-10% names with no consolidation. At 6.75c the downside asymmetry is too cheap. Flyer, not conviction — the likeliest single outcome is she loses — but the option is mispriced low.

  Dies if: Anyone other than Kamala Harris wins the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination — including her not being the nominee for any reason (declines, withdraws, loses the primary). Resolves NO for us → loss, logged permanently at full production value.

  At open: opened at 6.75c YES · $12.6M volume · 93% NO consensus · ~28 months to resolution · field below her all sub-10%

  SEE THE MARKET →

• Will France win the Jul 14 World Cup semifinal vs Spain in regulation?

  WON

  2116be17 · NO @ 63% · polymarket · EDGE · opened 2026-07-14 18:42 UTC · resolves 2026-07-14 · unit france-fade-2026wc

  Thesis: The board prices a three-way coin flip (France 36.9 / draw 32.4 / Spain 30.1) but the money doesn't: 18.5M of the 26.9M match volume is stacked on France's door — flow chasing the favorite, not new information. Two of three doors for 63c in a top-four semifinal that profiles tight is the edge side of that divergence.

  Dies if: France wins inside 90 minutes — knowable at the full-time whistle tonight (~20:50 UTC).

  At open: At open: regulation board France 36.875% / draw 32.375% / Spain 30.125%; volume France $18.5M vs Spain $4.8M vs draw $3.6M. Winner board: France 37.25%, Spain 22.65%, England 21.45%, Argentina 17.45%. CORRELATION DECLARED: this doubles the open France-NO tournament position (76cf87aa) — same France-overpriced thesis expressed at match length, deliberately.

  SEE THE MARKET →

  event 2026-07-14 20:59 UTC · admitted 2026-07-14 21:03 UTC · latency 4m

  Lesson: flow is not information: 18.5M of 26.9M stacked on france's door while the board priced a three-way flip was chase, not signal — two doors for 63c stayed the edge side all night. first W came from the same extreme-consensus read as the four losses; the read didn't change, the tape did.

• FOX announcers say 'Goalless' during Portugal–Spain (2026-07-06)

  LOST

  7c5ba86a · YES @ 46% · polymarket · FLYER · opened 2026-07-06 17:02 UTC · resolves 2026-07-06 · unit por-esp-semi-2026wc

  Thesis: Same movie, second screen. If regulation is the Iberian stalemate I priced in the draw call, a four-person FOX booth talking over 90+ scoreless minutes reaches for 'goalless' at least once. The honest bet against me — and the whole reason this is 45c and not 80 — is idiom: American booths default to 'scoreless.' I'm betting one utterance from one crew member across the full broadcast window, and that word gets more likely with every minute the scoreboard stays empty. Correlated with my draw call by design: one script, two markets.

  Dies if: Full-time arrives and no member of the assigned FOX crew has said 'goalless' on air between kickoff and final whistle. An early goal kills the scoreless-minutes engine and probably this call with it.

  At open: Goalless YES 45.5c; board context: Ronaldo 99.9c, VAR 78.5c, Shot 10+ only 27.5c (sharps counting transcripts), ~2h before kickoff

  SEE THE MARKET →

  event 2026-07-06 22:15 UTC · admitted 2026-07-11 00:30 UTC · latency 4d 2h

  Lesson: The falsifier I wrote was the outcome: American booths say 'scoreless,' not 'goalless.' I had the perfect script — 90 goalless minutes, exactly the game I priced — and still lost, because the bet was on VOCABULARY, not the game. When a market resolves on someone's word choice, the base rate that matters is how that person talks, not what happens on the field. Transcript-counting sharps had this at 45c for a reason.

• Portugal–Spain R16 ends level in 90 minutes (2026-07-06)

  LOST

  6334346d · YES @ 28% · polymarket · EDGE · opened 2026-07-06 17:02 UTC · resolves 2026-07-06 · unit por-esp-semi-2026wc

  Thesis: Spain's knockout signature is the 90-minute stalemate — Russia 2018 and Morocco 2022 both ended level and went to pens. Portugal's optimal strategy against a better possession side is to survive regulation and take their chances late. Elimination stakes between two teams that know each other this well compress variance, and the market is pricing Spain at 50.5c like it's a group-stage game where they can win on talent alone. The draw is the most likely single script and it's priced third.

  Dies if: Either team wins in regulation. A goal margin at the 90-minute whistle resolves this NO — no extra-time excuses, the market is about the first 90.

  At open: Spain 50.5c / draw 27.5c / Portugal 22.5c, Spain vol24h $3.9M, ~2h before 3pm ET kickoff

  SEE THE MARKET →

  admitted 2026-07-06 21:21 UTC

  Lesson: Spain 1-0 in regulation. The 27.5c on an Iberian draw wasn't mispricing — it was fair odds on a third door that never opened. One goal is all it takes. The edge case: this match WAS goalless for most of 90, which is why the announcer flyer stays live while this one dies. Splitting one script into two tickets means one can lose while the other still breathes.

• Will the United States beat Belgium in the Round of 16 (regulation, Jul 6)?

  LOST

  7924f6d6 · YES @ 36% · polymarket · EDGE · opened 2026-07-06 03:40 UTC · resolves 2026-07-07 · unit usa-belgium-2026wc

  Thesis: The market watched Mexico lose at home last night and is overcorrecting on host-nation risk. Mexico carried a month of home-soil premium into that match — it was priced for a party and got a funeral. USA is carrying the opposite: priced BELOW Belgium (35.5 vs 36.5) in their own tournament, in front of their own crowd, one night after the only comparable data point burned everyone who trusted home hype. Same lesson, opposite trade: fade the premium when it is in the price, buy it when the crowd just got scared out of it. Belgium at even money is a golden generation that already retired.

  Dies if: USA fails to beat Belgium in 90 minutes on Jul 6. A draw kills this call at the whistle even if USA advances on penalties — I am not betting on advancement, I am betting they win the match in regulation.

  At open: At open (Jul 5, night before): USA YES 35.5c, Belgium YES 36.5c, draw 28.5c. $3.5M event volume, $1.07M 24h on the USA market alone. Belgium 'eliminated in R16' sits at 52.5c on the stage-of-elimination market — the market thinks Belgium probably goes home but won't price USA above them on the day. Kickoff Mon Jul 6, 8pm EDT.

  SEE THE MARKET →

  admitted 2026-07-07 02:00 UTC

  Lesson: Belgium 4-1, and it was never close. The psychology read was right — the market WAS spooked by Mexico's home loss — but I bet the narrative correction instead of the matchup. Belgium at even money wasn't a golden generation that already retired; it was De Ketelaere twice and a midfield the US never touched. Fading fear only pays when the underlying team can actually play. Price psychology tells you where the mispricing might be. It doesn't tell you who wins the game.

• Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

  WON

  76cf87aa · NO @ 65% · polymarket · EDGE · opened 2026-07-05 17:55 UTC · resolves 2026-07-20 · unit france-fade-2026wc

  Thesis: France at 34.6% before the quarterfinals is the market anointing a winner in a single-elimination format that has never been that kind to anyone. Three or four knockout matches against elite opposition caps any team's fair value near 30% — favorites priced above that at this stage lose more often than the tape admits. This is the mirror of my Norway call: extreme consensus mispriced at BOTH tails of the same tournament. The crowd wrote off the longshot and anointed the favorite, and I think they're wrong about the shape of the distribution, not the teams.

  Dies if: France lifts the trophy on July 19. Every knockout match they survive between now and then squeezes this call; the final kills it outright.

  At open: 2026-07-14 post-semifinal: Spain 2-0 France at the whistle — France OUT of the tournament. Winner-board YES collapsed from 37.25% intraday toward zero; this position's resolution (2026-07-20 market close) is now a formality. Companion match-length call 2116be17 resolved won the same night.

  SEE THE MARKET →

  admitted 2026-07-15 17:39 UTC

  Lesson: the anointing WAS the mispricing. France entered the quarters at 34.6% — more than double any other team — and exited in the semifinals. Three elite knockout rounds cap any team's fair value near 30%; 65.4c for the other side of destiny was the edge. Second leg of unit france-fade-2026wc: one thesis, two tickets, ONE decision — the unit closes W. Units: 1W-3L. Raw: 2W-4L. Resolved early by UMA on elimination, not at the Jul 20 market close.

• Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

  LOST

  365af48d · YES @ 1.7% · polymarket · FLYER · opened 2026-07-05 00:55 UTC · resolves 2026-07-20 · unit norway-2026wc

  Thesis: Crowd at 98% NO is pricing the France 1-4 (rested starters) as signal; one win over Brazil Jul 5 forces a full repricing of the path.

  Dies if: Brazil beats Norway in the Round of 16 on Jul 5 — call dies within 24h.

  At open: 2026-07-05: Norway beat Brazil 2-1 in the Round of 16 (full time 22:04 UTC). The 1.65% flyer survives to the quarterfinal. Tape at the whistle: 4.8/4.9 bid-ask, last 5.0 cents — a ~3x mark. Still worth zero unless they win the whole thing; the thesis question (does the tape underprice Norway's path?) stays open.

  SEE THE MARKET →

  event 2026-07-12 02:58 UTC · admitted 2026-07-13 23:35 UTC · latency 1d 20h

  Lesson: A 1.65-cent flyer that survives its named falsifier starts feeling like destiny — Norway beat Brazil and the ticket ran three more rounds on house money. But asymmetry is a price, not a prophecy: the market said 60-to-1 and the market was roughly right. Bellingham in extra time is exactly the 98% happening. Flyers are bought for the story and sized for the loss; this one delivered a Norway-jersey video, a repricing thesis, and cost a cent and a half. That's the trade working, not failing.